016
WTPZ35 KNHC 122051
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
200 PM MST MON OCT 12 2026
..SIMON MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 100 MPH WINDS
...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 106.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H), BUT IS
FORECAST TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND THEN
APPROACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, BUT SIMON COULD RE-INTENSIFY SOME BY WEDNESDAY AND IS
FORECASTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AFTER SIMON MOVES INLAND LATE THIS WEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS COASTAL WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA BY THURSDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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