869
AXPZ20 KNHC 122124
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 106.8W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SIMON IS MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AFFECT LAS TRES MARIAS THROUGH LATE TUE
BEFORE BEGINNING TO VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, AND MOVE
INLAND ACROSS SINALOA ON THU NIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGTHENING LATE TUE
THROUGH THU. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA BY
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON- GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
INVEST EP93: THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 94W, NORTH OF
02N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED NEAR 08N94W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM
04N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N76W TO 10.5N84W TO 1008 MB
LOW PRES NEAR 08N94W TO 12.5N102W, THEN RESUMES NEAR 17N114W TO
09N127W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01S TO 09.5N E OF 88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 98W AND
115W, AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF
03N BETWEEN 127W AND 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON.
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ALONG 31.5N SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA NORTE TO BEYOND 24.5N120W.
FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT ARE IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 5 FT IN S SWELL FROM SIMON ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE. MOSTLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE SW TO W WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINING
BAJA WATERS, BECOMING MODERATE NW SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND
INTO SIMON. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE SEAS GENERATED FROM SIMON
ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER SOUTH OF BAJA BETWEEN 110W
AND THE SW MEXICAN COAST. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IMPACT LAS TRES MARIAS THROUGH TUE, REACHING
NEAR 20.5N 107.0W TONIGHT, NEAR 20.9N 107.5W TUE AFTERNOON, NEAR
21.2N 107.7W TUE NIGHT, NEAR 21.5N 107.7W WED AFTERNOON, NEAR
22.2N 107.4W WED NIGHT, AND INLAND NEAR 24.2N 106.6W BY FRI
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF GUATEMALA, ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS EXTEND OFFSHORE FROM THE
PAPAGAYO REGION TO BEYOND 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. A BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 94W, INVEST EP93 DESCRIBED ABOVE, AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO S
WINDS ARE JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 09N AND NEAR 90W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO S WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN SW
SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 08N. THESE MONSOONAL WINDS ARE FORCING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
03.5N AND E OF 85W TO COLOMBIA, AND ARE IMPACTING MOST OF THE
NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS THERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE
ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 85W THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY WED. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
MID WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W SHIFTS WESTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE WATERS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE TO 21N128W IS FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 20N. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 20N W OF 120W, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE WATERS E OF 130W THROUGH LATE TUE WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PULSE OF LARGE S-SW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS W
OF 100W WED NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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