136
AXPZ20 KNHC 130312
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 107.0W AT 13/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SIMON IS MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE WEST- NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SIMON COULD APPROACH THE COAST OF WESTERN
MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA
BY THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON- GOING FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND
POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP93):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED
TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING,
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N E OF 90W, AND FROM 04N
TO 16N BETWEEN 90W TO 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON, AND FOR A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH EP93.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA (EP93) SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 21N131W.
FRESH SW WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 20.4N 107.0W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 969 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 20.7N 107.3W TUE MORNING,
21.0N 107.7W TUE EVENING, 21.3N 108.0W WED MORNING, 21.8N 108.0W
WED EVENING, 22.5N 107.9W THU MORNING, AND 23.2N 107.8W THU
EVENING. SIMON WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 24.0N 107.6W LATE FRI. A STATIONARY FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. ROUGH SEAS
IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS. IN
ANTICIPATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, ASSOCIATED WITH EP93
COVER THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH EP93 ARE IMPACTING THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
EP93 MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 85W THROUGH
TUE THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE WATERS FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 21N131W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 20N W OF 120W, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUE. LARGE SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PULSE OF LARGE S-SW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS W
OF 100W WED NIGHT.
AL
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