985
WTPZ35 KNHC 131454
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
800 AM MST TUE OCT 13 2026
..SMALL SIMON FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
...INTERESTS IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 107.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY AN
EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT SIMON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS ON WEDNESDAY, AND FOR MAINLAND MEXICO ON
THURSDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
THE STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NAYARIT, AND SINALOA BY FRIDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE NEAR OR EAST WHERE SIMON'S
CENTER EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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