760
WTPZ41 KNHC 132037
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 PM CST TUE OCT 13 2026
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BOTH MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LIKELY ABOUT 60 MILES TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE, AND BASED ON RECENT DATA,
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE HIGHER NOW.
THE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB IS T2.5/35 KT, AND A
RECENT AIDT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ALSO 35 KT. AN
ASCAT PASS FROM 1452 UTC HAD A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 31-KT VECTORS
NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT DUE
TO ITS RESOLUTION, AND BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME WITH INCREASED BANDED CONVECTION
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM TRUDY WITH 35-KT WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR TRUDY IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/7 KT.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. THEREAFTER, A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS LIKELY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO
EXPECTED BY DAY 2 AS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT IN WEAKER STEERING
CURRENTS IN BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND HURRICANE SIMON
TO ITS NORTHWEST. SPREAD IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LARGER THAN
NORMAL FROM DAY 3 TO 5, AND SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS LIKELY ALSO
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SIMON'S TRACK AND STRENGTH. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS INTO MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD COULD HELP DRAW SIMON CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE OF
MEXICO, IF THE FRONT IS POTENT ENOUGH. REGARDLESS, TRUDY COULD
POTENTIALLY BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE RIGHT (EAST)
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE FARTHER EAST INITIAL POSITION
AND A NET EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST. AT DAYS 4 AND 5, THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST, WHICH WOULD BRING TRUDY
CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW,
ESPECIALLY FROM HOUR 72 TO 120.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE WORKS TO DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE CORE. AFTER THAT TIME, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE 12 TO 60 H TIME WINDOW. SOME
OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS 80 KNOTS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 72
H, AND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HCCA AND GDMI. 90
PERCENT OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING
TRUDY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT TRUDY COULD GET
STRONGER IN BETWEEN THE DAY 3 AND 4 POINTS, WHEN THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO PEAK IN INTENSITY. BEYOND DAY 4, THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION COULD INDUCE
SOME WEAKENING, AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING
SOME STRENGTH AFTER DAY 4. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ABOVE AVERAGE. WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT WILL BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND
STORM SURGE IMPACTS, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
LOCATION OR MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 10.6N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 11.3N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 12.0N 99.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 12.7N 100.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 13.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 15.3N 101.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 17.1N 103.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 19.1N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page