531
AXPZ20 KNHC 140308
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 107.6W AT 14/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
106W AND 109W. SIMON REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE, BUT HAS STARTED
TO RE INTENSIFY. SIMON IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SIMON COULD BE NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS ON
THURSDAY, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NAYARIT, AND SINALOA. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY SIMON WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.2N 97.0W AT 14/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 FT ACROSS THE N
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 5N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. THE INITIAL
MOTION OF TRUDY IS NORTHWESTWARD, AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
AND IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND
STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THESE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N89W, THEN RESUMES
FROM NEAR 08N100W TO 05N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N109W TO
04N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 86W, AND FROM 00N TO
06N BETWEEN 100W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW
AND NW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH WINDS EXTEND ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
TRUDY.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 20.1N 107.6W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95
KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 20.1N 107.8W WED MORNING, 19.6N 108.2W WED
EVENING, 18.9N 108.5W THU MORNING, 19.7N 108.1W THU EVENING,
21.0N 108.0W FRI MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
22.3N 108.8W FRI EVENING. SIMON WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 24.1N 109.7W LATE SAT. TROPICAL STORM TRUDY
IS NEAR 11.2N 97.0W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 11.8N
98.6W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.6N 100.0W
WED EVENING, 13.5N 100.9W THU MORNING, 14.3N 101.5W THU EVENING,
15.2N 101.9W FRI MORNING, AND 16.3N 102.5W FRI EVENING. TRUDY
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.0N 104.4W
LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY WED. A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
TRUDY DOMINATE THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
PREVAIL ACROSS THESE OUTER WATERS S OF 14.5N AND W OF 90W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS AND S OF THE WATERS OF COSTA RICA,
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA E OF 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING
S OF 13N, AND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WELL OFFSHORE
OF GUATEMALA, WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED AS TRUDY MOVES FURTHER
FROM THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED BY SW
SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACTIVE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 85W TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WATERS
N OF 18N AND WEST OF 115W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 18N
W OF 100W, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PULSE OF LARGE S-SW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS W
OF 100W WED NIGHT.
AL
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