206
AXPZ20 KNHC 140911
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W AT 14/0900 UTC,
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
21N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE OF WEST- CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIMON COULD BE
NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS ON THURSDAY, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL LIKELY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 99.0W AT 14/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT NEAR 17 FT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 24 H, REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SOMEWHERE
AROUND 48 H AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR AROUND 60-72 H BEFORE
STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N89W, THEN RESUMES
FROM NEAR 08N103W TO 05N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N112W TO
05N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W, AND FROM
00N TO 06N BETWEEN 100W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHERE
SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. FRESH WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TRUDY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 19.8N 107.9W AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
969 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.6N 108.0W THIS AFTERNOON, 19.4N
108.1W THU MORNING, 19.2N 108.3W THU AFTERNOON, 19.6N 108.5W FRI
MORNING, 20.9N 109.1W FRI AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 22.4N 109.8W SAT MORNING. SIMON WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
24.6N 111.1W EARLY SUN. TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS NEAR 11.1N 99.0W
AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 11.5N 100.2W THIS
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.4N 101.3W THU
MORNING, 13.1N 101.8W THU AFTERNOON, 14.0N 102.4W FRI MORNING,
14.9N 102.9W FRI AFTERNOON, AND 16.0N 103.6W SAT MORNING. TRUDY
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.5N 105.2W
EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF TRUDY DOMINATE THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA, ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM
TRUDY, WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS TRUDY MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA.
A SET OF SW SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI AND SAT. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WATERS
N OF 15N AND WEST OF 115W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 18N
W OF 100W, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PULSE OF LARGE S-SW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS W
OF 100W WED NIGHT.
AL
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