074
WTPZ41 KNHC 141456
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 AM CST WED OCT 14 2026
TRUDY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A COLD CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIKELY UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE
PASSES OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. TRUDY ALSO HAS LOOSELY
CONNECTED OUTER CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEST.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 3.5/55 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 36 TO 45
KT. THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, SINCE
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONTINUED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
TRUDY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 290/11 KT, TO
THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW, AS TRUDY MOVES
CLOSER TO HURRICANE SIMON. THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES, WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 N MI APART, ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 500 MILES
OF EACH OTHER BY HOUR 36, POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE EACH
OTHER'S STEERING. BY THURSDAY, INCREASING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA AND STEERING FROM
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SIMON SHOULD CAUSE TRUDY TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, AND POSSIBLY NORTHWARD FOR A TIME THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AS SIMON FINALLY MOVES NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN
AND INDUCE TRUDY TO MAKE A LEFTWARD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS, BUT THERE
HAS BEEN AN OVERALL RIGHTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, MAINLY
DURING THE FIRST 60 TO 72 H OF THE FORECAST, SO THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 H. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE HCCA AND GDMI AT
36-72 H. AT DAY 5, THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE, BUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LATEST GDMI, HCCA, AND
TVCN, BUT THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE ALONG
TRUDY'S TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS, AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. BY HOUR 72, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT TRUDY WILL REACH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DAYS 4 AND
5, REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION TRUDY INCURS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY PERIOD, AND IS SIMILAR TO THE HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
NHC CONTINUES TO CALL FOR TRUDY TO GET CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE, AND GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY, RESIDENTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY, AND BE READY TO POSSIBLY IMPLEMENT
THEIR HURRICANE PLAN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND
STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 11.5N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 12.1N 100.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 12.9N 101.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 13.7N 101.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 14.6N 102.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 16.5N 103.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 18.4N 105.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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