887
AXPZ20 KNHC 141551
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 108.1W AT 1500 UTC,
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 18 FT. SIMON REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING WINDS TO 20 KT ONLY
EXTENDING 90 NM FROM CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM W AND SW OF THE CENTER. THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN VERY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER
WELL OFFSHORE OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FORECAST. BY THU EVENING, A
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE. INTERESTS IN WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL LIKELY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N 99.5W AT 1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
15.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS, REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SOMEWHERE
AROUND 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR AROUND 60-72 HOURS
BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY, AND BE READY TO
POSSIBLY IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN. THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THU INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N72.5W TO 09.5N79W TO 10.5N91W,
THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 08N101W TO 05N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N112W TO 04N122W TO 07N135W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08.5N
BETWEEN 83W AND 93W, AND FROM 00N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 99W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO
07.5N W OF 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD THROUGH THE TIBURON BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH NE WINDS EXTEND
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF TRUDY. SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER EXTEND TO THE NORTH
OF TRUDY TO 14.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS,
AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY ARE WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE COASTS OAXACA AND SE GUERRERO.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY S TO SW
THROUGH THU, REACHING NEAR 19.2N 108.3W THU AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING NEAR 19.9N 108.7W FRI
MORNING, NEAR 21.2N 109.7W FRI AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.6N 110.6W SAT MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 26.9N 113.6W MON MORNING. TO THE E,
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 12.1N 100.4W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.9N 101.2W THU
MORNING, REACH NEAR 13.7N 101.7W LATE THU AFTERNOON, NEAR 14.6N
102.0W FRI MORNING, NEAR 15.5N 102.4W LATE FRI AFTERNOON AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE, AND NEAR 16.5N 103.0W SAT MORNING. TRUDY WILL
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND REACH NEAR 18.4N 105.0W SUN MORNING AND
NEAR 19.9N 106.9W MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH
THU. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AS TRUDY MOVES
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
WATERS OF OF 85W SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS MORNING, WITH CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF
EASTERN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WELL OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA
WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS TRUDY MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA. NEW
SW SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI AND SAT. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WATERS
FROM 15N TO 27N AND WEST OF 115W, WHERE AN OLD COLD FRONT HAS
RECENTLY DISSIPATED. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT N NW SWELL ACROSS THIS
AREA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
MERGING NW AND SW SWELL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 18N W OF 100W,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH S OF 15N AND ALONG 127W.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER TO THE S OF 07N AND
WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
PULSE OF LARGE S-SW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS W OF 100W WED
NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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