469
WTPZ41 KNHC 142047
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 PM CST WED OCT 14 2026
TRUDY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE MASS BECOMING LARGER AND COLDER. RECENT SAR, ASCAT AND
SSMIS PASSES GIVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE CENTER POSITION IS NOW
EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH THE MIDDLE OF THE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING CONVECTIVE
OVERCAST. THE LATEST TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 4.0/65 KT, AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN INCREASING, NOW IN THE
44-51 KT RANGE. THE ASCAT-B PASS FROM AROUND 16Z HAD A PEAK WIND
RETRIEVAL OF 51 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KT.
BASED ON MICROWAVE CENTER FIXES OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, TRUDY
HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/8 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY, AS TRUDY MOVES CLOSER TO
HURRICANE SIMON. THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WITHIN 500 MILES OF EACH OTHER BY THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE EACH OTHER'S STEERING. BY THURSDAY, AN
AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
AMERICA AND THIS POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SIMON SHOULD CAUSE TRUDY
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND POSSIBLY NORTHWARD FOR A TIME
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AS SIMON FINALLY MOVES NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN AND
INDUCE TRUDY TO MAKE A LEFTWARD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
SINCE SIMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THOUGH, IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH
OF AN INFLUENCE ON TRUDY'S TRACK, WHICH COULD ALLOW TRUDY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 96 HOURS, BUT IS FARTHER SOUTH AT DAY 5,
INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE ALONG
TRUDY'S TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HOURS, ALTHOUGH RECENT NESDIS
GLIDER OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT TRUDY MAY BRIEFLY TRAVERSE LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FOR 24 HOURS BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY
EVENING BEFORE REACHING HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AGAIN. THE WIND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS, BUT THE ECMWF-BASED
SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 20 KT
FROM DAY 3 TO 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, CALLING FOR STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PEAKING AROUND 115 KT AROUND HOUR 60. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE HCCA, GDMI, HAFS-A, AND HAFS-B, ALL OF WHICH PEAK
TRUDY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE BETWEEN 105-120 KT IN ABOUT 60 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE
STEADY WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH
END OF THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
NHC CONTINUES TO CALL FOR TRUDY TO GET CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE, AND GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY, RESIDENTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY, AND BE READY TO POSSIBLY IMPLEMENT
THEIR HURRICANE PLAN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND
STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
2. LARGE SWELLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 11.9N 100.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 12.5N 100.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 101.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 14.0N 101.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 15.8N 102.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.9N 103.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.8N 105.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 19.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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