271
AXPZ20 KNHC 142147
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 108.3W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 18 FT. SIMON REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AND
PUSHING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CENTER. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
AND SW OF THE CENTER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE OF WEST- CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
FORECAST. BY THU EVENING, A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. INTERESTS IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY SIMON WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 100.0W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 20 FT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS, REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SOMEWHERE
AROUND 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR AROUND 60-72 HOURS
BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THU INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N73W TO 10N79W TO 10.5N92W,
THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 08N101W TO 05N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N112W TO 03N127W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN
83W AND 94W, AND FROM 00N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 99W AND 114W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO
07N W OF 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD THROUGH THE TIBURON BASIN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE
TO SPILL OUR OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TRUDY. SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER
EXTEND TO THE NORTH OF TRUDY TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TRUDY ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COASTS FROM CHIAPAS TO CENTRAL
GUERRERO.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY S TO SW
THROUGH THU, REACHING NEAR 19.1N 108.4W THU AFTERNOON, THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING NEAR 20.3N 109.5W
FRI AFTERNOON, WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM, THEN
REACH NEAR 22.8N 111.5W SAT AFTERNOON, NEAR 24.9N 113.2W SUN
AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THEN REACH NEAR 26.7N 114.2W
AS A REMNANT LOW. TO THE E, TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 12.5N 100.8W TONIGHT AS IT STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE,
REACH NEAR 13.2N 101.4W THU AFTERNOON, NEAR 14.0N 101.7W THU
NIGHT, NEAR 14.9N 102.0W FRI AFTERNOON AS A MAJOR HURRICANE, AND
NEAR 16.9N 103.3W SAT AFTERNOON. TRUDY WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND VEER MORE NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING NEAR 18.8N 105.3W SUN
AFTERNOON AND NEAR 19.4N 107.2W MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THU. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA,
WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AS TRUDY MOVES
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODERATE EASTERLY GAP WINDS
EXTEND ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO NEAR 87W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NEW SW SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI THROUGH SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WATERS
FROM 14N TO 26N AND WEST OF 115W, WHERE AN OLD COLD FRONT HAS
RECENTLY DISSIPATED. SEAS ARE 9 TO 9 FT N NW SWELL ACROSS THIS
AREA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
MERGING NW AND SW SWELL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 20N W OF 100W,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
100W AND 115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WILL RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER TO THE S OF 07N AND
WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
PULSE OF LARGE S-SW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS W OF 100W WED
NIGHT.
STRIPLING
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