571
WTPZ41 KNHC 150234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 PM CST WED OCT 14 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TRUDY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A 2305 UTC GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEALED IMPROVING INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION, WITH A CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS T4.0/65 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE.
BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/7 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS TRUDY MOVES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY NORTH IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA. THIS
STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRUDY VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. BETWEEN 72 AND
96 H, TRUDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST FROM NEAR MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES, BEFORE TURNING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL
STORM SIMON, A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE NORTHWEST, COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THE STEERING
PATTERN. CONSIDERABLE TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, PARTICULARLY DURING
DAYS 4 AND 5, WHEN THE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION THROUGH 96 H, BUT IS FARTHER NORTH AT DAY 5
AS TRUDY TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI CONSENSUS AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
SURROUNDING TRUDY. THE IMPROVING INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION NOTED IN
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT TRUDY COULD BE POISED TO
UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, THE LATEST SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF A
30-KT INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 H, MORE THAN FOUR
TIMES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. ALTHOUGH TRUDY COULD BRIEFLY
ENCOUNTER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKES OF
PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES, OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 H, FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY FRIDAY.
BEYOND 60 H, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEN LIES NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS, INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY AND BE PREPARED
TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND
STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THESE AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES BY THE
WEEKEND ACROSS COLIMA AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP
TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 12.4N 100.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 12.9N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 13.6N 101.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 14.5N 102.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.3N 102.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.4N 103.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.6N 104.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 19.7N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 20.1N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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