375
AXPZ20 KNHC 150250
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N
108.6W AT 15/0300 UTC, MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 17 FT.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. THE STORM IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. SIMON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVEN
SLOWER OR POSSIBLY STALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT REMAINS
CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER, A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST SEEMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, THEN CONTINUE A
WEAKENING TREND. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR WEST OF THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 100.8W AT 15/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 22 FT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 H, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO
MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY FRIDAY. BEYOND 60 H, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM
SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THESE AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS COLIMA AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE,
TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND MICHOACáN. THIS
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THU INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 10N90W, THEN RESUMES
FROM NEAR 07N101W TO 03N117W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N117W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 97W AND 114W, AND FROM 00N TO 06N
BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS
NEAR 19.1N 108.6W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 4 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.0N
108.5W THU MORNING, 19.1N 108.6W THU EVENING, 19.7N 109.1W FRI
MORNING, 20.8N 110.3W FRI EVENING, 21.7N 111.2W SAT MORNING, AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 22.8N 112.3W SAT EVENING.
SIMON WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 24.6N 113.6W
LATE SUN. TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS NEAR 12.4N 100.8W AT 8 PM PDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60
KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. TRUDY WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.9N 101.3W THU
MORNING, MOVE TO 13.6N 101.8W THU EVENING, 14.5N 102.1W FRI
MORNING, 15.3N 102.5W FRI EVENING, 16.4N 103.2W SAT MORNING, AND
17.6N 104.3W SAT EVENING. TRUDY WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.7N 106.4W LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS
IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THU. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
N OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL, PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NEW SW SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI THROUGH SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WATERS FROM 15N
TO 21N AND WEST OF 115W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 20N
W OF 100W, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WILL RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER TO THE S OF 07N AND
WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
PULSE OF LARGE S-SW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE WATERS W OF 100W WED
NIGHT.
AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page