659
WTPZ41 KNHC 150838
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 AM CST THU OCT 15 2026
TRUDY'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, WITH AN
EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTAINING CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
-85 DEGREES C AND A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES REVEALED
IMPROVING INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION, WHILE A 0339 UTC METOP-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS HELPED REFINE THE CYCLONE'S WIND RADII AND
STRUCTURE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB
IS T4.0/65 KT, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 65 KT, MAKING TRUDY A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/8 KT. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF AMERICA. SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM SIMON, A COMPACT
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST,
COULD ALSO INFLUENCE TRUDY'S STEERING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TRUDY VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND, FROM NEAR PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES, BEFORE A REBUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH INDUCES A
WESTWARD TURN AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE
TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, PARTICULARLY FROM DAYS 4 TO 5, WHEN THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION THROUGH 72 H, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS TRUDY TURNS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST HCCA AND GDMI
CONSENSUS AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE SURROUNDING TRUDY. THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN TRUDY'S
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
HURRICANE COULD BE POISED TO UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). THIS POSSIBILITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SHIPS RI GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES A 28 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
A 35-KT INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 H, ROUGHLY FOUR
TO SIX TIMES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. ALTHOUGH TRUDY COULD BRIEFLY
ENCOUNTER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKES OF
PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES, OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR RI DURING THE NEXT 24 H, WITH TRUDY EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY DAY 3, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEN LIES NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
TRUDY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY, AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TRUDY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE
PLANS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES BY
THE WEEKEND ACROSS COLIMA AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG
STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 12.9N 101.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 13.4N 101.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 14.2N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 102.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.5N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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