927
AXPZ20 KNHC 150856
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 108.5W AT 15/0900
UTC, AND IS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 15 FT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
107W AND 109W. SIMON HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS, BUT ITS LONGER-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN A SOUTHWESTWARD
DRIFT. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MEANDER WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H. HOWEVER, A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST SEEMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, THEN CONTINUE A
WEAKENING TREND. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR WEST OF THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND
LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 101.6W
AT 15/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 24 FT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY NORTH IS ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 H, WITH TRUDY
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH SATURDAY. BY DAY 3, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF
WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ACROSS COLIMA AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE,
TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. THIS
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL START TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SWELLS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 11N92W, THEN RESUMES
FROM NEAR 10N103W TO 03N114W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N114W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SIMON AND RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS NEAR 19.2N 108.5W AT 2
AM PDT, AND IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.1N 108.5W THIS AFTERNOON, 19.6N 108.9W FRI
MORNING, 20.5N 109.8W FRI AFTERNOON, 21.3N 110.9W SAT MORNING,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 22.2N 112.0W SAT AFTERNOON,
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 23.2N 113.0W SUN MORNING.
SIMON WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 26.0N
114.5W EARLY MON. RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE TRUDY IS NEAR 12.9N
101.6W AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 13.4N 101.9W THIS
AFTERNOON, 14.2N 102.3W FRI MORNING, 15.1N 102.8W FRI AFTERNOON,
16.1N 103.4W SAT MORNING, 17.4N 104.4W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 18.8N
105.5W SUN MORNING. TRUDY WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 20.5N 107.3W EARLY MON. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS IN NW
SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY.
A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
N OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL, PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NEW SW SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI THROUGH SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS COVER THE
WATERS N OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF
10N AND W OF 110W. MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
WILL RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER TO S OF 10N AND WEST OF 100W
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AL
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