569
AXPZ20 KNHC 151530
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 108.1W AT 15/1500
UTC, AND IS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 14 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST TO
BEGIN FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL THIS WEEKEND AND A REMNANT LOW BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PASS
WEST OF THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 101.6W AT 15/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 26 FT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. A
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT OR SO,
AND TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRI.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ACROSS
COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN.
THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL START TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SWELLS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 12N94W, THEN RESUMES
FROM NEAR 10N103W TO 03N117W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N117W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN 103W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SIMON AND HURRICANE TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.1N 108.5W
THIS AFTERNOON, 19.6N 108.9W FRI MORNING, 20.5N 109.8W FRI
AFTERNOON, 21.3N 110.9W SAT MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 22.2N 112.0W SAT AFTERNOON, AND BECOME A REMNANT
LOW AND MOVE TO 23.2N 113.0W SUN MORNING. SIMON WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 26.0N 114.5W EARLY MON.
HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 13.4N 101.9W THIS AFTERNOON, 14.2N
102.3W FRI MORNING, 15.1N 102.8W FRI AFTERNOON, 16.1N 103.4W SAT
MORNING, 17.4N 104.4W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 18.8N 105.5W SUN
MORNING. TRUDY WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 20.5N 107.3W EARLY MON. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY. A GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
N OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL, PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED BY SW SWELL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NEW SW SWELL WILL BRING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI THROUGH SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS COVER THE
WATERS N OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL PREVAIL S OF
10N AND W OF 110W. MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
WILL RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER TO S OF 10N AND WEST OF 100W
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page