689
WTPZ31 KNHC 151739
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1200 PM CST THU OCT 15 2026
..HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TRUDY
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, TRUDY
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG
STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND MICHOACáN. THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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