435
WTPZ41 KNHC 152049
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 PM CST THU OCT 15 2026
TRUDY'S INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY PAUSED. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE HURRICANE
A FEW HOURS AGO AND REPORTED MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
84 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 978 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ATTEMPT TO FORM AN EYE, BUT IT HAS NOT YET FULLY CLEARED OUT.
THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT BASED
ON THEM AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND THIS MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PAUSE IN THE DEVELOPMENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 345/5 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WESTWARD TO CENTRAL MEXICO. DURING THE NEXT 36 H,
THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE TRUDY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. HOWEVER, ANY TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST - SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS - WOULD BRING THE
CENTER ONSHORE. AFTER 72 H, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH
36 H, SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 36-72 H, AND A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 72-120 H.
EXCEPT FOR THE APPARENT TONGUE OF DRY AIR, CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STEADY TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 H.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WHICH IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE UPPER
EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 H, THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT WILL LIKELY HALT DEVELOPMENT.
EVEN WITH THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE, THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER, ANY TRACK TO THE LEFT AND FARTHER OFFSHORE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD LET TRUDY STAY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, WHILE ANY TRACK THAT THE BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND WOULD
CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. BEYOND 72 H, STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS
MOVING AWAY FROM LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE OVERALL
TREND OF THE GUIDANCE, AND IT IS NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST, AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FURTHER UP THE COAST TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES BY THE
WEEKEND ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 13.7N 101.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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