239
AXPZ20 KNHC 152117
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100
UTC, DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 12 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
107W AND 109W. A FASTER NW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
BY SAT AND A REMNANT LOW SUN. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS
MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIMON NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SAT. A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN AND COLIMA, AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GUERRERO.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT OR SO, AND TRUDY
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE FRI. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ACROSS MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY
TRUDY WILL START TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SWELLS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND
POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
TRUDY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N96W, THEN RESUMES
FROM NEAR 10N103W TO 03N118W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N118W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 87W AND 92W AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SIMON AND HURRICANE TRUDY.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, STRONG N
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE ONGOING IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 2
PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 1 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 999 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.8N 108.7W FRI MORNING, 20.8N
110.0W FRI AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
22.0N 111.9W SAT MORNING. SIMON WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR
23.1N 113.6W SAT AFTERNOON, MOVE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SUN
MORNING, THEN DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON. HURRICANE TRUDY IS NEAR
13.7N 101.7W AT 2 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 14.3N
101.9W FRI MORNING, AND 15.2N 102.2W FRI AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
TRUDY WILL REACH 16.3N 102.9W SAT MORNING, 17.5N 103.9W SAT
AFTERNOON, 18.8N 104.9W SUN MORNING, AND 19.8N 105.8W SUN
AFTERNOON. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER WEST OF
CABO CORRIENTES MON AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MAY REACH GALE FORCE THIS WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS
N OF 04N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEW SW SWELL WILL BRING
ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS FRI THROUGH SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS COVER
THE WATERS N OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL
PREVAIL S OF 10N AND W OF 110W. MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
WILL RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER TO S OF 04N OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
KONARIK
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