991
WTPZ45 KNHC 160240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
800 PM MST THU OCT 15 2026
SIMON IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE COMPACT STORM IS PRODUCING A
LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT,
WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. SIMON REMAINS TINY,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING UP TO
40 N MI FROM THE CENTER.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER,
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE FLOW
BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR SHOULD CAUSE SIMON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, SIMON IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 19.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 21.2N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 22.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 23.2N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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