442
WTPZ31 KNHC 160246
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 PM CST THU OCT 15 2026
..TRUDY STRENGTHENS
..EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 102.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
ON FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND TRUDY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN,
COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER KELLY
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