410
WTPZ41 KNHC 160247
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 PM CST THU OCT 15 2026
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OF TRUDY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CORE OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C, PARTICULARLY ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, AN EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON INFRARED AND PROXY-VIS IMAGERY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES TO
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE CORE STRUCTURE SINCE THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DEPARTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T5.0/90
KT, WHILE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE
SPREAD OF 65-81 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE, AND THE TAFB
CLASSIFICATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 345/6 KT. TRUDY IS
MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, STEERING TRUDY NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GFS, WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND. AFTER 72 H, A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, TURNING TRUDY
MORE WESTWARD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 60 H, BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
THEREAFTER, LEANING TOWARD THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STEADY TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 29-30C, COMBINED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NHC PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST STILL REMAINS AT
125 KT, WHICH IS ABOVE ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDEX STILL SHOWS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RI OVER THE NEXT 24 H, AND THE NHC FORECAST EXPLICITLY REFLECTS RI
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AFTER 36-48 H, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR, POTENTIAL INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES, SUCH AS EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE
CIRCULATION, INDUCING A WEAKENING TREND. REGARDLESS, TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BE A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
SENSITIVE TO THE EXACT TRACK. A TRACK FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND
OFFSHORE WOULD ALLOW TRUDY TO REMAIN STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, WHILE A TRACK THAT BRINGS THE CENTER INLAND WOULD RESULT
IN RAPID WEAKENING. BEYOND 72 H, STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
WEAKENING, EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LESS LAND INTERACTION AS
IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE INITIALLY, THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE HCCA
CORRECTED CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
AN INCREASING RISK OF STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING
RAIN. HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST, AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES BY THE
WEEKEND ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 14.3N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.0N 102.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 15.9N 102.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.1N 103.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 18.4N 104.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 19.7N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 21.0N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 21.3N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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