536
AXPZ20 KNHC 160358
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0335 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 102.1W AT 16/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 11N TO
17N AND BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. A NNW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL
MEXICO ON SATURDAY. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND TRUDY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 108.5W AT 16/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 19N TO 22N AND BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND SIMON
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.
SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON SIMON AND TRUDY.
GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL RESULT IN STRONG FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE SAT AND
CONTINUE UNTIL MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO VERY ROUGH DURING
THIS PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARDS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W AND TO 10N97W,
THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 11N103W TO 05N118W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N118W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY AND WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM SIMON. ALSO, ON THE
GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THIS WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW MEXICO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 15.0N 102.3W FRI MORNING,
15.9N 102.8W FRI EVENING, 17.1N 103.7W SAT MORNING, 18.4N 104.8W
SAT EVENING, 19.7N 105.7W SUN MORNING, AND 20.7N 106.4W SUN
EVENING. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER 21.0N 107.6W
LATE MON. MEANWHILE, SIMON WILL MOVE TO 20.1N 109.1W FRI
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 21.2N 110.7W FRI
EVENING, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 22.1N 112.4W SAT
MORNING, 23.2N 114.0W SAT EVENING, AND DISSIPATE SUN MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD, GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REACH
GALE FORCE THIS WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EAST TO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS MEDIUM.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE
OCCURRING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND ECUADOR. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GAP WINDS WILL REACH GALE-FORCE
STRENGTH IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG FORCE AND SEAS BUILD
TO ROUGH IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA STARTING SAT
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH ON SUN, BUT ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 40N130W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, SUSTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SW SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
WILL RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER TO S OF 10N OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOOKING AHEAD, NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS FRI NIGHT AND
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.
DELGADO
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