549
WTPZ31 KNHC 160547
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1200 AM CST FRI OCT 16 2026
..TRUDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 102.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TRUDY IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB (28.26 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO IN MICHOACAN,
COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO IN GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP
TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER REINHART
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