487
WTPZ45 KNHC 160840
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
200 AM MST FRI OCT 16 2026
SIMON IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE STORM CONTINUES TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEPER CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER. A 0501 UTC METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 34 KT. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DROPPED SLIGHTLY, AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM
TAFB WAS 2.5/35 KT, BUT THE FINAL T-NUMBER WAS 2.0/30 KT. BASED ON A
COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTERLY, OR 310/08 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND A
RIDGE TO ITS EAST, BRINGING THE WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM JUST WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA REQUIRED A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS
CENTER POSITION; THEREFORE, THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
NUDGED NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY, ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI) ENSEMBLE.
SIMON IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24–36 H DUE
TO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. AS A RESULT, SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 H AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT
48 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 20.0N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 20.7N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PIERCE/REINHART
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