567
WTPZ31 KNHC 160851
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 AM CST FRI OCT 16 2026
...MAJOR HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
..TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 102.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON
SATURDAY AND PASS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TRUDY IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND TRUDY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO. SOME WEAKENING IS PREDICTED
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO IN GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP
TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER REINHART
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