304
WTPZ41 KNHC 160852
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 AM CST FRI OCT 16 2026
TRUDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. ITS
15-N-MI WIDE EYE, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROXY-VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, IS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEG C. A PROMINENT OUTER
BAND WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, TRENDING
CLOSER TO RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES IN LIEU OF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
THAT APPEAR TOO LOW GIVEN TRUDY'S IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE STRUCTURE.
THE HURRICANE UNEXPECTEDLY MOVED WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT
AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING NORTHWARD, BUT USING A LONGER-TERM
ESTIMATE YIELDS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION (325/5 KT). THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ON TRUDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY
BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING
THE CENTER OF TRUDY VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO IN 48-60 H. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHIFTED
WESTWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTWARD DEVIATION DESCRIBED
ABOVE, AND MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE SKILLFUL GOOGLE DEEPMIND KEEP
THE CENTER OF TRUDY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, NOTE THAT SMALL CHANGES TO A
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE COAST COULD RESULT IN LARGE
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SEVERITY OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. USERS
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE MONITORING FORECAST UPDATES.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
TRUDY MOVES OVER VERY WARM SSTS IN A MOIST, LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE NEAR-TERM NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES ON THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE (NEAR HCCA) GIVEN THE STORM'S CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF
LOW NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS
WEEKEND AS TRUDY MOVES NORTHWARD, WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.
POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION FURTHER COMPLICATES THE FORECAST, BUT
TRUDY IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME AND BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO. THEREAFTER,
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
AN INCREASING RISK OF STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING
RAIN. HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST, AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES BY
THE WEEKEND ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 14.2N 102.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.8N 102.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.9N 103.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 20.3N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.0N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 21.8N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER REINHART
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