130
AXPZ20 KNHC 161008
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 102.4W AT 16/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
956 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 30 FT. A PARTIAL ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED SEAS NEAR 26 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 12N TO 17N AND
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. A NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO ON
SATURDAY AND PASS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, AND TRUDY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO. SOME WEAKENING IS PREDICTED LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY
ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 108.8W AT 16/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 9 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 20N TO 22N AND
BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. A GENERAL NW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND
SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST- TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN A
DAY OR SO. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON SIMON AND TRUDY.
GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE GULF OF AMERICA LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP
TROPICS WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE-
FORCE SAT AND CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MON OR EARLY TUE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO VERY ROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD, PEAKING AROUND 15 FT LATE
SUN INTO MON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARDS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W AND TO 10N97W,
THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 08N102W TO 02N119W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
02N119W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 01N TO 14N AND EAST OF 93W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 11N AND BETWEEN 97W
AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY AND TROPICAL STORM SIMON. ALSO, ON THE GALE
WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THIS WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS DUE
TO A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED
NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW MEXICO. THE
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE,
ESPECIALLY AROUND PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS IN THE AREAS DESCRIBED ARE
3-6 FT. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 14.8N 102.7W
THIS AFTERNOON, 15.9N 103.4W SAT MORNING, 17.4N 104.4W SAT
AFTERNOON, 19.0N 105.5W SUN MORNING, 20.3N 106.3W SUN AFTERNOON,
AND 21.0N 107.0W MON MORNING. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM OVER 21.4N 108.0W EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 20.7N 109.7W
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 21.8N 111.7W SAT
MORNING, 23.1N 113.6W SAT AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE SUN MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AND SEAS BUILD TO VERY ROUGH STARTING
SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON OR EARLY TUE. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL AFTERWARDS UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS IS MEDIUM.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WATERS
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR. A CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE AREA
DESCRIBED. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GAP WINDS WILL REACH GALE-
FORCE STRENGTH IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REACH STRONG FORCE AND SEAS
BUILD TO ROUGH IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA STARTING
SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH ON SUN, BUT
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 35N133W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, SUSTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH
SEAS SOUTH OF 10N DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY MODERATE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, NW SWELL WILL
REACH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THEN, A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BRING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO
THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDWEEK.
DELGADO
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