528
AXPZ20 KNHC 161602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 102.5W AT 16/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 130 KT. MAX SEAS ARE AROUND 28 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECITON IS OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
98W-104W. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND
PASS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, AND TRUDY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO MEXICO.
WEAKENING IS PREDICTED LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 109.5W AT 16/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN
108W-112W. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON SIMON AND TRUDY.
GALE WARNING: A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS STARTING
TODAY. THIS EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPER SHOULD REACH GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLIES TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON TUE. PEAK WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 40 KT
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LARGEST SEAS NEAR 15
FT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N86W TO
10N95W. IT BEGINS AGAIN NEAR 10N100W AND EXTENDS TO 00N130W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 00N130W AND GOES TO BEYOND 01N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
00N-09N EAST OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 100W-119W AND FROM
02N-02N BETWEEN 130W-138W..
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY AND TROPICAL STORM SIMON. ALSO, ON THE GALE
WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THIS WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
FRESH TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE N GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 5-7
FT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 15.3N 102.9W THIS
EVENING, 16.6N 103.8W SAT MORNING, 18.1N 104.8W SAT EVENING,
19.6N 105.8W SUN MORNING VERY CLOSE TO CABO CORRIENTES, 20.7N
106.4W SUN EVENING, AND 21.2N 107.1W MON MORNING. TRUDY WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER 21.7N 108.1W EARLY TUE OVER THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 21.6N 110.9W
THIS EVENING SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND
MOVE TO 22.7N 112.7W SAT MORNING, 24.0N 114.6W SAT EVENING, AND
DISSIPATE SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM, A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS STARTING TODAY.
THIS EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPER SHOULD REACH GALE-FORCE NORTHERLIES
TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MON, BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ON TUE. FINALLY LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS LOW, WHILE FORMATION CHANCE
THROUGH 7 DAYS IS MEDIUM.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER OVER FORECAST WATERS THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN SW SWELL. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 00N-09N EAST OF 89W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPECER GAP WIND
EVENT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE W
PORTION OF THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ZONE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE SEAS FROM MIXED NW SWELL FROM THE
TEHUANTEPECER AND SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ALSO
IMPACT THIS ZONE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE
SW SWELL IS IMPACTING THE EQUATORIAL ZONES NOW THROUGH SUN.
FINALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUATEMALA THROUGH
COLOMBIA OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1027 MB HIGH AT 37N133W TO
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS CAUSING ONLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES. SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 02S95W
TO 20N140W IS EXPERIENCING SEAS 8-10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LARGE SW SWELL IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE NW SWELL
WILL REACH OUR NW CORNER AT 30N140W TONIGHT AND REACH TO 25N125W
BY MON WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
LANDSEA
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