303
WTPZ31 KNHC 162040
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 PM CST FRI OCT 16 2026
..HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT TRUDY IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 102.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA
PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND PASS NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCH
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST IN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page