348
WTPZ41 KNHC 162041
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 PM CST FRI OCT 16 2026
AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED, THE EYE OF TRUDY DISAPPEARED AND
WFSM MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
HAD DECAYED. IN ADDITION, A SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR OVERPASS NEAR
12Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 80 KT. WHEN AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE STORM BETWEEN 18-19Z, IT FOUND
A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 982 MB AND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 76 KT. BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT. THE REASONS FOR THIS
WEAKENING ARE SPECULATIVE, BUT IT ONE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE
SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE HAS UPWELLED COLD WATER UNDERNEATH IT AS IT
CROSSED THE PATHS OF POLO AND RACHEL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 330/4 KT. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS, WITH THE CENTER
PASSING NEAR OR POSSIBLY OVER THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AT
ABOUT THE 48-HOUR POINT. AFTER THAT TIME, A WEAKENING TRUDY SHOULD
BE STEERED MORE BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR OR JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
TRUDY'S FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT INTO AN AREA OF DEEPER WARM WATER,
WHICH IN THEORY COULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 24 H OR SO. HOWEVER, THERE STILL MAY BE A TONGUE OF DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CORE, AND AS THE CYCLONE GETS
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO LAND INTERACTION BECOMES A NEGATIVE
FACTOR. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION,
WHILE SOME OF IT SHOWS CONTINUED WEAKENING. THIS PART OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MODEST INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
FIRST 24 H. AFTER 48 H, TRUDY SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AND A
DRY AIR MASS, AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT KEEP THE CENTER OFFSHORE FORECAST THE SYSTEM
TO STOP PRODUCING CONVECTION BETWEEN 96-120 H, AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS MAJOR REDUCTIONS IN INTENSITY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WHILE TRUDY IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND, IT WILL STILL BRING AN INCREASING RISK OF STORM SURGE,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAIN. HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES,
AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES, ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST, AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES BY THE
WEEKEND ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.9N 104.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.7N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 20.9N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 21.5N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 22.1N 109.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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