775
AXPZ20 KNHC 162119
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 102.5W AT 16/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. MAX SEAS ARE AROUND 32 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECITON IS OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
98W-104W. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND PASS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE REMNANTS OF SIMON ARE CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 110.3W AT 16/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 7 FT. NO DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SIMON. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE
REMNANTS OF SIMON COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS ON SIMON AND TRUDY.
GALE WARNING: A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT HAS STARTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPER SHOULD REACH GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLIES SAT MORNING AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON WED. PEAK WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND
45 KT SAT AFTERNOON WITH LARGEST SEAS NEAR 15 FT FROM AT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N86W TO
09N95W. IT BEGINS AGAIN NEAR 10N101W AND EXTENDS TO 00N130W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 00N-09N EAST OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 105W-121W AND FROM
04S-02N BETWEEN 129W-138W..
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE REMNANTS OF SIMON, AS WELL AS THE GALE
WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
FRESH N WINDS HAVE BEGUN ALONG THE COAST OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS
5-7 FT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS AND 2-5 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 15.5N 103.1W SAT
MORNING, 16.9N 104.1W SAT AFTERNOON, 18.5N 105.1W SUN MORNING
APPROACHING CABO CORRIENTES, 19.7N 105.9W SUN AFTERNOON, WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.5N 106.6W MON MORNING, AND 20.9N
107.1W MON AFTERNOON. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER 21.5N 108.1W TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION TO TRUDY, A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT HAS STARTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPER
SHOULD REACH GALE-FORCE NORTHERLIES SAT MORNING AND LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH TUE, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON WED. FINALLY
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. FORMATION CHANCE IS NEAR ZERO
THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND MEDIUM THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER OVER FORECAST WATERS THIS MORNING.
SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN SW SWELL. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 00N-09N EAST OF 94W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPECER GAP WIND
EVENT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE W
PORTION OF THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ZONE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE SEAS FROM MIXED NW SWELL FROM THE
TEHUANTEPECER AND SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ALSO
IMPACT THIS ZONE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LARGE SW
SWELL IS IMPACTING THE EQUATORIAL ZONES NOW THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
FINALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUATEMALA THROUGH
COLOMBIA OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH AT 36N136W
TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING ONLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES. SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN 95W-125W IS
EXPERIENCING SEAS 8-9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGE SW SWELL IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER ON TUE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE MODERATE OR FRESH BEHIND THE FRONT, LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
LANDSEA
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