398
WTPZ31 KNHC 170237
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 PM CST FRI OCT 16 2026
..TRUDY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY
...TRUDY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAS
ISLAS MARIAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO ZIHUATANEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND PASS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST IN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER GIBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page