003
WTPZ41 KNHC 170240
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 PM CST FRI OCT 16 2026
TRUDY'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER AND A
POSSIBLE RAGGED EYE BEGINNING TO REAPPEAR. CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85
DEGREES C HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T4.5/77 KT, WHILE RECENT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT. GIVEN THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWARD, OR ABOUT 350/6 KT. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CENTER OF TRUDY VERY CLOSE
TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THEREAFTER, AS
TRUDY WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW, A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED,
TAKING THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION, TOWARD THE HCCA, GDMI, AND TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS,
BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSER
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 H AS
TRUDY MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS WITH INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
AWAY FROM THE RELATIVELY COOL WAKES OF PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES.
HOWEVER, POSSIBLE DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE CYCLONE'S INCREASING
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. BEYOND
36 TO 48 H, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING. THESE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE TRUDY TO LOSE ITS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION, BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BETWEEN 12 AND 24 H TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN
TRUDY'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING AN INCREASING RISK OF STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAIN. HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES, AS WELL AS
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES, ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST, AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ALONG
AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 15.2N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.3N 103.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.7N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 19.0N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 20.0N 106.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 20.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.9N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 21.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS
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