302
AXPZ20 KNHC 170314
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 102.5W AT 17/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTH AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
MAX SEAS ARE AROUND 32 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 13N TO 18N AND BETWEEN 100W AND 106W.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND PASS NEAR
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS ON SIMON AND TRUDY.
GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPER SHOULD REACH
GALE- FORCE NORTHERLIES SAT MORNING AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TUE, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON WED. PEAK WINDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 45 KT SAT AFTERNOON WITH LARGEST SEAS NEAR 17 FT FROM SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N88W AND TO 11N94W
AND THEN FROM 10N101W TO 05N115W AND TO 05N129W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 04N129W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF 09N AND EAST OF 91W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
01N TO 08N AND BETWEEN 105W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THE REMNANT LOW OF SIMON JUST
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFF CABO SAN LUCAS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 16.3N 103.4W SAT
MORNING, 17.7N 104.4W SAT EVENING, 19.0N 105.3W SUN MORNING
APPROACHING CABO CORRIENTES, 20.0N 106.1W SUN EVENING, WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.6N 106.8W MON MORNING, AND 20.9N 107.6W
MON EVENING. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OVER 21.3N
108.8W LATE TUE OVER THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION TO TRUDY, A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING.
THIS EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPER SHOULD REACH GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLIES SAT MORNING AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON WED. FINALLY LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EAST
PACIFIC. FORMATION CHANCE IS LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND HIGH
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SWELL. SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPECER GAP WIND
EVENT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE W
PORTION OF THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ZONE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE SEAS FROM MIXED NW SWELL FROM THE
TEHUANTEPECER AND SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ALSO
IMPACT THIS ZONE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LARGE SW
SWELL IS IMPACTING THE EQUATORIAL ZONES NOW THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
FINALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUATEMALA THROUGH
COLOMBIA OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN FORCES MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 115W.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND EAST OF 125W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGE SW SWELL IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER ON TUE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD ONLY
BE MODERATE OR FRESH BEHIND THE FRONT, LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DELGADO
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