347
WTPZ41 KNHC 170845
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 AM CST SAT OCT 17 2026
TRUDY'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERALL DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT, WITH
CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85 DEGREES C. A 0053 UTC RCM-3 SYNTHETIC
APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS AND A 0439 UTC METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
HELPED REFINE THE INITIAL POSITION AND WIND RADII OF THE HURRICANE.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 75 KT. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 325/7 KT. A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CENTER OF TRUDY VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THEREAFTER, AS TRUDY WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW, A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED, TAKING THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION, BUT
REMAINS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING
THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
WHILE TRUDY REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HOWEVER,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTIMATED AT AROUND 14 KT BY THE
LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND THE CYCLONE'S PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO, COULD LIMIT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHILE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DECREASES TO BELOW 50
PERCENT. THESE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CAUSE TRUDY TO LOSE ITS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION, LYING NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING AN INCREASING RISK OF STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAIN. HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES, AS WELL AS
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES, ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST, AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ALONG
AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 16.0N 103.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.1N 104.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 105.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 19.7N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 20.7N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 20.9N 108.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 21.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS
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