829
AXPZ20 KNHC 170923
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 103.4W AT 17/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 33 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 13N TO 19N AND BETWEEN 101W AND
107W. A GENERAL NW MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY AND PASS
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING REMAINS
POSSIBLE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING BEGINNING BY SUNDAY. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS ON TRUDY.
GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORT
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9 FT. THIS EARLY-SEASON
TUHUANTEPECER SHOULD REACH GALE-FORCE NORTHERLIES THIS MORNING AND
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
ON WED. PEAK WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LARGEST SEAS NEAR 17 FT FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N89W AND TO 10N94W
AND THEN FROM 12N101W TO 09N115W AND TO 05N129W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 05N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND SOUTH OF 13N AND EAST OF
95W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 01N TO 08N AND BETWEEN 105W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
AWAY FROM HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, THE
REMNANTS OF SIMON CONTINUE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS ALSO SHOWED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
2-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 17.1N 104.2W THIS
AFTERNOON, 18.6N 105.4W SUN MORNING APPROACHING CABO CORRIENTES,
19.7N 106.1W SUN AFTERNOON, 20.5N 106.9W MON MORNING, WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.7N 107.4W MON AFTERNOON, AND 20.9N
108.1W TUE MORNING. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OVER 21.1N
109.3W EARLY WED OVER THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION TO TRUDY, A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS
ONGOING. THIS EARLY-SEASON TUHUANTEPECER SHOULD REACH GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLIES THIS MORNING AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON WED. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. FORMATION CHANCE
IS LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND HIGH THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER, STRONGER
WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. SEAS OF 6-8 FT
ARE NOTED BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG- PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL. SEAS OF 3-6 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPECER GAP WIND
EVENT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE W
PORTION OF THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ZONE TONIGHT AND SUN.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE SEAS FROM MIXED NW SWELL FROM THE
TEHUANTEPECER AND SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ALSO
IMPACT THIS ZONE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LARGE SW SWELL
IS IMPACTING THE EQUATORIAL ZONES NOW THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FINALLY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM GUATEMALA THROUGH COLOMBIA OVER
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 37N147W EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS DEPICTS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS NORTH OF 06N AND WEST OF
120W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND EAST OF 125W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE LARGE SW SWELL IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR
NORTHERN BORDER ON TUE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, DIMINISHING WED NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PRODUCING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
SUBSIDING BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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