396
WTPZ41 KNHC 171438
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 AM CST SAT OCT 17 2026
TRUDY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE HURRICANE IS
PRODUCING A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN
-80C, AND CURVED BANDS OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN THE CDO INDICATE AN
EYEWALL IS PRESENT UNDERNEATH IT. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STARTING TO INCREASE, BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO SUPPORT
RAISING THE INTENSITY. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, 325/9
KT. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO,
BRINGING THE CENTER OF TRUDY VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THEREAFTER, AS TRUDY WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED, TAKING THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST HAS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH
THE CENTER MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AROUND
36-48 H.
NOW THAT TRUDY IS OVER WATER WITH A HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT,
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION COULD LIMIT HOW
MUCH STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. AFTER 24 H OR SO, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING EVEN WHEN THE
CENTER WOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STOP PRODUCING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 72-96 H AND DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE, AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 H. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS SOME TWEAKS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
AND IT LIES NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING AN INCREASING RISK OF STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAIN. HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES, AS WELL AS
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES, ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST, AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THIS
WEEKEND ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
3. LARGE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 16.6N 103.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.7N 104.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 19.1N 105.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 20.1N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 20.7N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 20.9N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 20.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 21.7N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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