268
WTPZ31 KNHC 171742
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1200 PM CST SAT OCT 17 2026
..TRUDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 104.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE TRUDY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
RAINFALL: TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN
COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG
STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST IN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT. THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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