775
WTPZ41 KNHC 172054
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
300 PM CST SAT OCT 17 2026
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED THAT TRUDY HAS
A 38 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WERE 95 KT IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 976 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT
THE CENTER WAS A BIT WEST OF WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT IS,
POSSIBLY DUE TO A TILTED VORTEX, AND THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
NUDGED WESTWARD.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320-325 DEGREES/9
KT. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TO POSSIBLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 H AS A WEAK LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF TRUDY VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, AS TRUDY WEAKENS AND BECOMES
STEERED MAINLY BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED, TAKING THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW MUCH
STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR. BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 12 H. AFTER ABOUT 18 H,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING EVEN
WHEN THE CENTER WOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAD BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD TO BETTER
MATCH THE PACE OF THE WEAKENING IN THE GUIDANCE. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STOP PRODUCING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 72-96 H AND DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE, AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
2. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WAVES IS LIKELY
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
3. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
4. LARGE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 17.5N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 18.6N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 19.8N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 21.0N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 21.2N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 21.5N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 22.2N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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