489
AXPZ20 KNHC 172122
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 105.0W AT 17/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 34 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A GENERAL NW
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL PASS NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING BEGINNING BY SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN
COAST IN MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS ON TRUDY.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MEXICO IS FORCING POWERFUL GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC, WHERE VERY ROUGH SEAS HAVE
BUILT. WINDS TONIGHT AND SUN WILL BE NEAR STORM-FORCE, WITH SEAS
AS HIGH AS 20 FT. GALES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W AND FROM 12N102W
TO 05N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N E OF 95W AND FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 105W
AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
AWAY FROM HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 2-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY IS NEAR 17.5N 105.0W AT 2 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
976 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 18.6N 105.6W SUN MORNING, 19.8N 106.4W
SUN AFTERNOON, AND 20.7N 107.1W MON MORNING. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.0N 107.6W MON AFTERNOON, BE NEAR
21.2N 108.1W TUE MORNING, AND 21.5N 108.7W TUE AFTERNOON. TRUDY
WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW JUST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
WED AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MEXICO IS FORCING POWERFUL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUNATEPEC, WHERE VERY ROUGH SEAS HAVE BUILT. WINDS TONIGHT AND
SUN WILL BE NEAR STORM-FORCE, WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT. GALES
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS NW OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ARE FILTERING SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO FRESH N WINDS WELL OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA, AND SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
IN DECAYING LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE ALSO PRESSURE S OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MAINLY 3 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A POWERFUL EARLY-SEASON GAP WIND EPISODE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SEND STRONG N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS TO WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA INTO SUN NIGHT, WITH ROUGH
SEAS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. LARGE SW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DECAY SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR INTO TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS LEADING TO A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES N OF 06N AND W OF 120W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S WINDS AND
6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, S OF 120W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE SW SWELL NEAR THE EQUATOR WILL DECAY
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 30N BY EARLY TUE,
BRINGING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS TUE INTO WED N OF 28N,
WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS N OF 20N TUE INTO THU.
KONARIK
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