443
WTPZ31 KNHC 180242
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 PM CST SAT OCT 17 2026
...TRUDY CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 105.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM EAST OF
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
TRUDY IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WILL PASS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE MAINLAND MEXICO PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA LATER TONIGHT, AND IN THE ISLAS MARIAS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA TONIGHT.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT. THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP
TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WAVES
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE
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