353
AXPZ20 KNHC 180319
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 105.7W AT 18/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 34 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL PASS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS ON TRUDY.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER NE MEXICO IS FORCING POWERFUL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS TONIGHT
AND SUN WILL BE NEAR STORM-FORCE, WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT.
GALES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 09N94W AND FROM
09N111W TO 08N125W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N126W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N AND E OF 93W AND FROM 01N TO 10N AND BETWEEN
101W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY OFF SW MEXICO AND THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AWAY FROM HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW
MEXICO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 27N. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 2-4 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 19.2N 106.4W SUN
MORNING, 20.1N 107.1W SUN EVENING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 20.6N 107.7W MON MORNING, 20.9N 108.3W MON EVENING, 21.1N
108.7W TUE MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.5N 109.3W
TUE EVENING. TRUDY WILL DISSIPATE LATE WED. ASIDE FROM TRUDY,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NE MEXICO IS FORCING POWERFUL
GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC, ALONG WITH VERY
ROUGH SEAS. WINDS TONIGHT AND SUN WILL BE NEAR STORM- FORCE,
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT. GALES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, N AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NE MEXICO SUPPORTS A LARGE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SPILLING IN
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA, ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10
FT. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
PREVAIL. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WHILE SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THE REST
OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A POWERFUL EARLY-SEASON GAP WIND EPISODE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPORT STRONG N WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA INTO SUN NIGHT, WITH
ROUGH SEAS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LARGE SW SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N140W EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF 06N AND WEST OF 125W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 127W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE SW SWELL NEAR THE EQUATOR WILL DECAY
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 30N BY EARLY TUE,
BRINGING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS TUE INTO WED N OF 28N,
WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS N OF 20N TUE INTO THU.
DELGADO
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