444
WTPZ31 KNHC 180532
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1200 AM CST SUN OCT 18 2026
...TRUDY BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 106.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MAINLAND MEXICO PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS
MORNING, AND IN THE ISLAS MARIAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THIS
MORNING.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT. THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP
TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WAVES
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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