022
WTPZ31 KNHC 181141
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
500 AM MST SUN OCT 18 2026
..TRUDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.9N 106.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE LIKELY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE MAINLAND MEXICO PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA THIS MORNING, AND IN THE ISLAS MARIAS THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL: THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN GUERRERO AND NAYARIT. THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP
TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WAVES
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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