515
WTPZ31 KNHC 181432
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
800 AM MST SUN OCT 18 2026
...TRUDY EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 106.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO
CABO CORRIENTES.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF
PLAYA PERULA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY
WILL START MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT, AND TRUDY COULD
DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MAINLAND
MEXICO PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, AND IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL: THROUGH TODAY, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN NORTHERN COLIMA AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WAVES
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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