211
WTPZ41 KNHC 181434
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
800 AM MST SUN OCT 18 2026
TRUDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C, AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS AT
EYE FORMATION. THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD FROM 62-102 KT,
BUT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THEM SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD OR 325/7 KT. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS TRUDY SHEARS APART VERTICALLY AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LIGHTER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO, BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS COMBINATION TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING
BEGINNING JUST AFTER 12 H, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
TREND OF THIS GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SHOWING TRUDY DEGENERATING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
60 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. AND AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, BOTH OF THESE COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
PREDICTED.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA TODAY.
2. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WAVES IS LIKELY
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
3. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN COLIMA AND NAYARIT THROUGH TODAY.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
4. LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 19.1N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.7N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.1N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.7N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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