556
AXPZ20 KNHC 181537
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 106.8W AT 18/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 34 FT (10 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
CENTER. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY
TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS ON TRUDY.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
MEXICO IS FORCING POWERFUL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE NEAR STORM-FORCE, WITH SEAS PEAKING AROUND 18 FT.
GALES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N99W AND FROM
09N107W TO 08N124W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N127W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02N TO 14N AND EAST OF 98W AND FROM 03N TO 10N AND
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 10N
AND WEST OF 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE TRUDY OFF SW MEXICO AND THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AWAY FROM HURRICANE TRUDY AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW MEXICO
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WATERS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 27N AND ALSO OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. THESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED
BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 3-
6 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 19.5N 106.9W THIS
AFTERNOON, 20.2N 107.5W MON MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 20.4N 107.9W MON AFTERNOON, 20.7N 108.5W TUE MORNING, WEAKEN
TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.1N 109.2W TUE AFTERNOON, AND 21.6N
109.7W WED MORNING. TRUDY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THU. ASIDE FROM
TRUDY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO IS FORCING POWERFUL
GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NEAR STORM-
FORCE, WITH SEAS PEAKING AROUND 20 FT. GALES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SPILLING INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA, ALONG WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO
15 FT. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
PREVAIL. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WHILE SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE FOUND IN THE REST OF THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GUATEMALA WATERS INTO TONIGHT, WITH
ROUGH SEAS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LARGE SW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECAY SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTING MIDWEEK INTO
LATE THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR WATERS EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
NORTH OF 06N AND WEST OF 125W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT.
IN THE EASTERN WATERS, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH OF 08N AND BETWEEN 94W AND 98W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF
125W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN WATERS THROUGH MON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, LARGE SW SWELL NEAR THE EQUATOR WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 30N BY EARLY TUE, BRINGING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N WINDS TUE INTO WED N OF 27N, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS N OF 20N TUE INTO THU.
KONARIK
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