677
WTPZ31 KNHC 181756
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1100 AM MST SUN OCT 18 2026
..TRUDY PASSING SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 106.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TRUDY
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH
(155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TONIGHT, AND TRUDY COULD DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 974 MB (28.77 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MAINLAND
MEXICO PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, AND IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL: THROUGH TODAY, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN NORTHERN COLIMA AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WAVES
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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