675
WTPZ31 KNHC 182041
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
200 PM MST SUN OCT 18 2026
..TRUDY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT
...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE ISLAS
MARIAS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 107.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO AND LAS ISLAS MARIAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AS WELL AS BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TRUDY.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT,
AND TRUDY COULD DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB (28.77 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TRUDY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?KEY_MESSAGES.
WIND: WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND LAS ISLAS MARIAS.
RAINFALL: THROUGH TONIGHT, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST IN JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: COASTAL FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE SHOULD SUBSIDE ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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